Which surprise teams could make the 2025 College Football Playoff?

Washington, Texas Tech, Boise State, Illinois, and Utah are our five most likely surprise CFP entrants based on returning production, schedule leverage, portal/NIL gains, and coach stability.

Which powerhouse programs are most likely to miss the 2025 CFP?

Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, and Miami carry the highest miss-risk due to schedule difficulty, QB transitions, youth or injury depth, and tighter margins in their leagues.

Why did Pingseat pick these teams?

We weigh roster/portal data, top-25 game opportunities, late-season resilience, and signals from coaches/players. The 12-team format increases access for disciplined, trench-strong programs.

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2025 CFP Predictions: 5 Surprise Teams In — and 5 Giants Out

Direct answer: Our bold 2025 College Football Playoff call: Washington, Texas Tech, Boise State, Illinois, and Utah crash the field. Meanwhile, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, and Miami miss the CFP despite title-level talent.

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How we make these calls

We combine four signals that historically matter in playoff races:

Returning production at premium spots (QB, OL, edge) and experienced depth across the two-deep.
Schedule leverage — true road tests, top-25 shot volume, bye placement, and late-season sequencing.
Transfer portal/NIL impact — can you plug holes with proven players and retain stars?
Coach/QB stability in one-score games (especially November).

Then we map realistic paths to 10–11 wins inside the 12-team format (league title helps; it isn’t always required).

Five surprise teams with real CFP paths

Washington Huskies (Big Ten) — the under-the-radar bully

Year 2 under Jedd Fisch should look less like patchwork and more like identity: sturdier lines, deeper skill talent, and multiple opportunities to notch ranked wins. National analyst Joel Klatt captured the temperature around Montlake: Nobody’s talking about Washington, and Washington’s got something cooking with Jed Fisch. Source.

Path to 10–11: split the Big Ten heavyweights, hold home serve, and avoid the mid-tier ambush. Two ranked road wins plus a clean November pushes the Huskies comfortably into the bracket.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12) — the NIL supercharger

Roster economics matter. Texas Tech’s Matador Club has reported more than $63M raised for NIL since 2022 with roughly $55M in active deals this season — fuel to plug two-deep holes with proven transfers and keep core talent in Lubbock. Source.

Path to 10–11: bank September, steal one from the Big 12’s top tier, lean on depth through October, and close 3–1. With two ranked wins and a conference-title shot, Tech’s résumé plays.

Boise State Broncos (Group of Five) — the auto-bid favorite

In the 12-team era, one Group-of-Five program gets in. Boise State keeps showing up in expert shortlists: veteran QB play, a defense that travels, and a conference slate that allows a double-digit win total without miracles. Source.

Path to 10–11: dominate league play, bag a credible non-conference win, and stay clean on special teams in November. An 11–2 league champ from the G5 is usually safe.

Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten) — the trench-first riser

Bret Bielema’s blueprint travels: OL/DL integrity, situational defense, and a run game that closes. Leadership helps, too. After being named captain, QB Luke Altmyer called it “something you dream about,” exactly the temperament Illinois needs in one-score drives. Source.

Path to 10–11: win the toss-ups at home, split against the league’s top trio, and keep turnovers under one per game down the stretch. Two ranked wins make the Illini hard to exclude.

Utah Utes (Big 12) — culture + November

Kyle Whittingham’s teams rarely beat themselves. After a frustrating 2024, he explained why he returned: he had to “come back and try to get the ship right and get back on track,” a window into Utah’s competitive fire. Source. Several national previews put the Utes squarely in the CFP conversation again.

Path to 10–11: win the field-position game in October, finish 3–1 in November, and take a swing at the Big 12 crown. Utah’s mistake-free profile is a tie-breaker weapon.

Five giants with real miss risk

Alabama Crimson Tide — new era, thin margins

Kalen DeBoer walks into title-or-bust expectations and a schedule with no breathers. Even two razor-thin SEC losses can push the Tide into the at-large scrum without the right pelts. Local coverage has already asked whether DeBoer “has” to make the CFP in Year 1 — a window into how unforgiving the runway is. Source.

Miss scenario: 10–2 with a neutral-site hiccup, no league title, and tie-breakers that don’t break their way.

Georgia Bulldogs — elite, but young in spots

Kirby Smart’s roster remains terrifying, yet youth and attrition at key positions plus a deeper-than-ever SEC introduces real wobble. Preseason outlooks keep Georgia near the top — just not untouchable. Source.

Miss scenario: one September slip and one November war of attrition yield two losses without enough statement wins to offset.

Oregon Ducks — Big Ten trench turbulence

Speed and scheme travel… until they meet four straight weeks of trench wars. The Big Ten’s physical cadence reduces margin for error; an ill-timed OL/DL injury cluster could knock the Ducks just outside the 12 despite top-10 quality.

Miss scenario: split the marquee games, drop a road trap, and fall on the wrong side of tie-breakers.

Ohio State Buckeyes — transition risk under the brightest lights

High ceiling, new quarterback, immediate heavyweights. Even one off-day can flip seeding in a league with multiple top-10s. Camp reports rave about upside, but the error bars are narrow when the margins are one possession.

Miss scenario: the offense needs a month to fully click; that’s enough to turn one heavyweight into a loss and another into a coin-flip that doesn’t bounce back.

Miami Hurricanes — line play is the hinge

Mario Cristobal framed a marquee opener as an “incredible opportunity,” but consistency up front will determine whether the ’Canes stack ranked wins or chase from behind. Source.

Miss scenario: early split in September, OL wobble against pressure looks, and one turnover game in November — 10–2 without elite wins can still fall short.

Turning points & schedule leverage

Washington & Illinois: multiple ranked opportunities; split those and avoid the mid-tier ambush. Utah: November discipline flips close games. Texas Tech: NIL-driven depth sustains through the Big 12’s October grind. Boise State: a clean league run plus one quality non-con win locks the G5 auto-bid argument.

Smart fan strategy: buy the dip, not the headline

Markets chase momentum. Prices usually pop after a ranked win and drift after scare games. The play is to set rules before the pop: game, section, contiguous seats, and an all-in price cap (fees included). We watch continuously; you get the ping and decide where to check out.

Get set in 60 seconds: create your Pingseat account, skim How It Works, and activate your first Ticket Alerts. Power users track alternates (weekday vs. weekend, lower vs. club). If you’re optimizing across multiple teams, check Pricing.

Bottom line

In: Washington, Texas Tech, Boise State, Illinois, Utah.

Out: Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Miami.

We’ll revisit this monthly as data rolls in. Meanwhile, stay ahead of the swings — sign up for Pingseat and let the best prices find you.