March Madness 2026: 10 Teams In and 10 Out

Which teams are most likely to make March Madness?

Purdue — continuity, shot creation, and seeding upside

Purdue returns experience across guard and frontcourt groups, with enough shooting to space high-usage scorers. The Boilermakers’ non-conference usually offers early Quadrant-1 chances that stabilize the sheet and reduce bubble volatility. Program context: purduesports.com.

What travels: half-court offense anchored by screening variety and rim protection that cleans second chances.

UConn — retooling with a proven blueprint

Dan Hurley’s identity—guard the arc, own the glass, create clean looks—travels even with roster churn. The Huskies routinely build an at-large case before February by banking neutral-site wins and avoiding bad clusters.

Houston — defense, rebounding, and late-game execution

Kelvin Sampson’s teams win the margins: pressure, boards, and execution. That profile has produced protected seeds across leagues and should hold in a loaded Big 12. Program context: uhcougars.com.

Kansas — versatility at both ends

Switchable wings, downhill guards, and a frontcourt that punishes single coverage position KU for a top-four seed if healthy. A schedule with multiple true-road tests offers résumé ballast.

Duke — high-leverage shot-making

Guards who can create late in the clock plus rangy wings give Duke a tournament-safe baseline; frontcourt stability dictates whether this becomes a 2- or 3-seed.

Arizona — pace, depth, and rim pressure

Tommy Lloyd’s tempo creates extra possessions; size and cutting generate high-value looks. Non-conference opportunities against ranked opponents add early equity.

Baylor — backcourt creation as a constant

Even in turnover years, Baylor’s guard play reliably produces paint touches and threes. If the Bears finish possessions on the defensive glass, they live on the top half of the seed list.

Alabama — modern spacing and shooting volume

High-attempt three-point volume plus rim pressure is noisy game to game but strong season-long. Defensive rebounding and turnover avoidance are the swing factors for a protected seed.

Gonzaga — execution and efficiency

Ball movement and interior efficiency remain hallmarks. With a sturdy non-conference slate, the Zags’ at-large case is usually secure by February.

North Carolina — two-way ceiling if the rotation clicks

A veteran core, improved spacing, and defensive length make UNC’s baseline tournament-safe. Health and late-game shot creation determine whether this rises to top-two-seed territory.

Which notable teams are most likely to miss?

Indiana — system shift, unforgiving calendar

Roster turnover plus an early schedule with few soft landings can push the Hoosiers toward bubble math without banked road results. The quickest path back is stacking true-road Q1s defined by the NET framework referenced above.

Villanova — transition trouble in a loaded Big East

Defensive identity remains, but consistent shot creation against elite wings is the swing factor; true-road Q1s likely decide fate.

Ohio State — chemistry tax

Plenty of talent, yet lineups with multiple new pieces often bleed points in January before stabilizing. Late-clock offense must keep pace to win one-possession games.

USC — portal volume vs. Big Ten grind

Year-one installs plus a trench-heavy league is a tough combo. The Trojans need glass control and free-throw rate to flip toss-ups.

Maryland — rebuild timing

Coaching and scheme changes usually cost early wins. Without signature road results, the sheet skews toward NIT even with improvement by March.

Syracuse — progress, but résumé scarcity

Better direction on both ends, yet the ACC middle is tight. Unless the Orange bank multiple road Q1s, they hover near the cut line.

Oklahoma — schedule tax in the SEC

The Sooners’ guard play flashes, but the relentless slate demands either top-10 defense or elite late-game offense—neither is guaranteed over four months.

Memphis — volatility year over year

Portal reloads provide ceiling; early cohesion often lags. Without banked non-conference wins, Memphis risks chasing from behind.

West Virginia — incremental steps in a deeper Big 12

A bid requires a leap in two-point defense and turnover margin against elite guards.

Iowa — offense isn’t the issue

Shot-making travels; stops do not. Unless the Hawkeyes finish possessions and defend the arc, they profile as high-end NIT.

Turning-point games & résumé leverage

• True-road top-40 wins: the fastest way to stabilize an at-large case per the NCAA’s NET/Quad definitions linked above.
• Neutral-site showcases: bank two quality wins in three days and seed lines jump.
• Avoiding bad clusters: consecutive “bad losses” can erase a month of work.
• February health: rotation stability matters more than early peaks; poll movement (see AP link above) reflects it.

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Markets chase headlines. Prices typically pop after a ranked road win and drift after scare games. Get ahead of both by setting precise rules: opponent, section, contiguous seats, and an all-in price cap (fees included). We monitor continuously; you choose where to check out.

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Bottom line

In: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Kansas, Duke, Arizona, Baylor, Alabama, Gonzaga, North Carolina.

Out: Indiana, Villanova, Ohio State, USC, Maryland, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Memphis, West Virginia, Iowa.

We’ll revisit these calls as non-conference slates finalize and mid-season data rolls in. Until then, let the deals come to you with Pingseat.